Bullion Break-Even Calculator
Calculate the entered future gold or silver spot reference at which modeled buy-back proceeds recover product price, purchase costs, holding costs and selling costs. Fine-metal conversion, dealer-discount arithmetic and the full recovery equation stay visible.
Enter the position and sale assumptions
Use fine-metal content and product-specific costs. Record the evidence and observation time for the optional reference and buy-back assumption separately.
Entered round-trip threshold
Bullion Break-Even 2.0.0.
Round-trip calculation audit
Each row exposes fine-content conversion, entered costs, dealer-discount arithmetic and proceeds reconciliation.
On smaller screens, scroll the table horizontally; the page itself remains contained.
| Step | Arithmetic | Result |
|---|
Buy-back discount sensitivity
Fine content, product price and entered costs stay fixed while only the entered buy-back discount is multiplied.
The 0×, 0.5×, 1×, 1.5× and 2× rows are mechanical scenarios, not dealer quotes, forecasts or expected ranges. Scenario discounts are capped at 99.99%.
| Discount factor | Discount | Buy-back rate | Break-even spot | Change / oz | Change % | Net at reference | Recovery gap | Status |
|---|
How the Bullion Break-Even Calculator works
Outlay before sale = product total + entered purchase costs + entered holding costs
Modeled buy-back rate = 1 − entered discount %
Break-even spot = (outlay before sale + entered selling costs) ÷ (fine troy ounces × buy-back rate)
Net proceeds = fine ounces × spot × buy-back rate − selling costs
The denominator uses total fine-metal content and the entered share of future spot modeled as payable. Selling costs remain outside that percentage so fixed and percentage assumptions cannot disappear into one unexplained spread.
Worked example from the audited fixture
Two entered gold products each contain one fine troy ounce and cost USD 2,675. The product total is USD 5,350. Adding USD 25 of purchase costs and USD 100 of holding costs makes outlay before sale USD 5,475; another USD 50 must be recovered to cover selling costs.
At an entered 3% buy-back discount, modeled payment is 97% of future fine-metal value. Break-even is USD 5,525 ÷ (2 × 97%) = USD 2,847.94 per fine troy ounce. Versus the optional USD 2,500 reference, the arithmetic increase is USD 347.94, or 13.92%. This is a threshold equation, not a target or forecast.
Use and limitations
- Use supported fine-metal content; do not treat an ordinary ounce as a troy ounce or apply fineness twice.
- Enter product price per item and item count consistently; purchase, holding and selling cost fields are totals for the full position.
- Use a product-specific buy-back quote or policy as evidence. The calculator neither supplies nor verifies one.
- The optional reference is descriptive. It provides no probability, holding period or expected price path.
- Tax, inflation, currency conversion, financing, opportunity cost, assay, refining deductions and every unentered amount remain outside the model.
- The result is not an appraisal, executable bid, price target, profit forecast, trade signal, recommendation or financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
- Add product, purchase, holding and selling amounts to recover, then divide by total fine troy ounces and the modeled dealer buy-back rate.
- A 3% entered discount models gross dealer payment at 97% of a hypothetical future fine-metal spot value before separate selling costs.
- Keeping them separate makes a fixed entered selling charge visible instead of hiding it inside a percentage spread.
- Fine troy ounces, grams, kilograms, pennyweight and ordinary avoirdupois ounces are supported. Fine content must already reflect purity.
- It calculates change to break-even, modeled net proceeds and the recovery gap under that manual reference. It provides no probability, timing or forecast.
- Not necessarily. Product, quantity, condition, assay, policy, fees and liquidity can change the actual bid or cause rejection.
- No. It is the solution to one entered cost equation, not an expected future price, trade signal or recommendation.
- No. Jurisdiction-specific tax lots, disposals, reporting, fee treatment and currency rules are outside the model.
Sources and methodology
- NIST — Precious Metals Conversion Information — identifies troy weight and SI units used in precious-metals measurement.
- LBMA — The Price — explains precious-metal price quotation per troy ounce.
- CFTC — Precious Metals Consumer Advisory — explains dealer spread, buy-back price, transaction costs and ongoing costs that raise the price move needed for recovery.
- United States Mint — Authorized Bullion Purchasers — documents two-way bullion distribution and primary examples of fixed and percentage premiums over prevailing metal references.
Bullion Break-Even 2.0.0 runs deterministic entered-data arithmetic in the browser and retrieves no market, seller, account or product data. Sources support measurement and cost boundaries; they do not endorse this website or any output.
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